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Recently, the animation submission for the upcoming Oscars/award season has been revealed. There are 25 animated features competing for those five sacred spots. While I was too late in doing a first half of 2018 look-back at animation, I think I’ll pretty much combine it with this editorial. 2018 has been an incredible year for animation, both big and small. This was definitely a step up from 2017, where outside of Coco, Captain Underpants, and LEGO Batman, the big-budget releases were either okay or hugely mediocre. It was like they got all of the filler titles put into 2017, so the better-made projects could all be in 2018. The indie side of things has also been incredible. While I am disappointed that some of my favorite films from the Animation is Film Festival are not a part of this submission list, the indie scene was still fantastic. So, like last year, I’m going to categorize each of the films that have 100%, 75% 50%, 25%, or 0% on getting one of those five sacred spots through the hopes that they earned it because of their quality, and not because of a big For Your Consideration campaign. Let’s get started.
The films that have a 100% chance
Isle of Dogs: Wes Anderson is a darling of the award scene, and if you doubt that, you will need to see the how many awards The Grand Budapest Hotel won (I love that movie). Plus, it’s a unique stop-motion animated feature and it did pretty good business when it was in its limited release run before hitting wide release.
Ralph Breaks the Internet: While some may say the original is better, I find the sequel to Wreck it Ralph to be even better. I think it handled its concept extremely well, it was funny, charming, touching, and overall, was another home run from the major Disney animation front. I find that it’s going to age better as an animated feature than the other big Disney/Pixar film out now.
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse: Before I saw this film, I was excited, but hesitant about it getting any award chance. However, as the nominations started to stack up, and I finally saw the film, yeah, it was incredible. It’s easily the best US-made animated feature of 2018, and it would be surprising if the Academy turned this film down. Like I said though, its multiple award nominations will definitely help get it nominated for an Oscar.
Mirai: If GKids had a potential film this year, it would be Mirai. They are marketing like it’s a Ghibli film, it’s been getting the biggest festival push, it’s gotten rave reviews from critics who have seen it, and its story and setting can be universally approachable to any voter in the academy. Or at the very least, it should be, because the Academy has some kind of issue against Japanese non-Ghibli movies, but I digress.
Ruben Brandt Collector: Sony Pictures Classics might not pick up as many animated features as GKids or Shout! Factory, but they pick out unique films that stand out among the rest, and you would have to be blind to not see the unique and visually stunning Ruben Brandt Collector. Along with its surreal art style, it’s a more mature animated feature, and the Academy would look really good if they chose something that was unique and different. Plus, Sony Pictures Classics is a favorite among the voters.
The films that have a 75% chance
Lu Over the Wall: before I knew GKids picked up Mirai, this was the film I was going to place my entire bet on which GKids film was going to get the Oscar love. While it might fall apart in the third act, and normal viewers will compare it a lot to Ghibli’s Ponyo or Disney’s The Little Mermaid, Lu Over the Wall is still a fantastic film with a unique art style, and likable characters. It’s more approachable to non-foreign animation viewers than Masaaki Yuasa’s other option in this race.
Tito and the Birds: A foreign animated feature with a grunge art style that sticks out, and is about a world that is infested with a virus that is caused by fear and paranoia? Yeah, this is an ideal film that could be very approachable to Oscar voters. It’s stylish, but also has a message. It gets a bit of that nostalgia with a lot of the inspiration for this great film being from 80s adventure films like The Goonies. It’s a topical film that has themes that can be timeless of how we should stand together against the fear-mongering individuals.
Incredibles 2: While the critical reception of the film is starting to die down as people realize that the film is good, but still not Pixar’s best and wasn’t worth the wait, the first film in the series did win an Oscar, and the Academy does love its safe bets, but we will have to see. The Academy also doesn’t like nominating Pixar sequels that aren’t Toy Story.
The Night is Short, Walk on Girl: I’m more hopeful about this movie, because it’s an adult animated feature, but it’s not adult in the sense of a stoner comedy, but adult in its themes, visuals, and humor. It’s a wild ride, but it’s probably a bit too experimental and zany for individuals who are looking for more “safe” features.
Maquia: When the Promised Flowers Bloom: I think it would be smart for the voters to look into this one to give an animated theatrical feature by a female director a chance, because it’s easily one of the most endearing and personally touching films of 2018. It’s one of the few films this year that has made me cry, and it has a unique and intensely intimate story about motherhood. I think the only thing that might hurt this film’s chances is that it’s a non-Ghibli Japanese feature, and the designs are not its greatest strengths.
The films that have a 50% chance
Liz and the Blue Bird: On one hand, the Academy has a huge bias against Japanese animation that isn’t made from Ghibli. On the other hand, the Academy sure does love its small-scale character-driven dramas. It’s a smaller-scale film that might turn people off who want to see more epic-scale adventures or stories, but Liz and the Blue Bird is one of the best character-focused stories of 2018, but I don’t know if it fully has a chance.
Early Man: I would love to see Aardman get a nomination, simply because Early Man is a pretty good movie. However, I do think what will hurt it ultimately is that the film is too simple, and it just got buried under Black Panther. It doesn’t help that Lionsgate’s company Summit Entertainment didn’t really do well at marketing the film or releasing it during a proper period of time. It just sucks that this film will get overlooked, but it’s also a film I feel like that kneecaps itself for being award-worthy. We will have to see.
MFKZ: I probably should put this on the 25% chance, but it’s a film that could make for an interesting choice, because it’s basically They Live (the John Carpenter horror movie) mixed with French/Japanese animation. It’s a thrill ride of over-the-top action, characters, and the Academy is always looking for something different that stands out. They might as well go with the one that stands out the most.
Smallfoot: While surviving pretty well in the top 10 box office films of September and through October, Smallfoot simply didn’t make a lasting impression. It’s a shame, because Smallfoot might be one of the biggest animated surprises of 2018. It might have a few jokes that fall flat, but it has a story that kept me and many others invested.
The films that have a 25% chance
Hotel Transylvania 3: Summer Vacation: While this might be the best film of the series with the most consistent visuals, story, characters, and laughs, no one really talks about the film anymore, and its popularity came and went fast. Plus, the others haven’t had a chance in Hades of getting nominated, and that’s no different here. Maybe it had a chance if it was released last year, but sadly, it has very little here.
On Happiness Road: While I am aware of this movie, it’s still going through its festival run, and I haven’t heard of a US distributor for it yet. It was at the Annecy 2018 film festival, but this film has no presence in the US, even though it does look great. Maybe its positive reviews will give it some clout, but it has very little chance in the award show circuit.
Teen Titans Go to the Movies: I like this movie, but it’s a film based on a TV show. It has very little chance in getting any kind of buzz. It’s also worth noting that it’s also another superhero movie. If a superhero film this year is going to get some kind of major award, it’s Black Panther.
Sgt. Stubby: An American Hero: I can sum up why this film has very little chance. It’s the biggest animated failure of 2018. At the very least, the other big animated flops like Early Man and Sherlock Gnomes made back their main budgets. When you can’t even muster $5 mil of a $25 mil budget, then that’s saying something. It might have its setting to boast about, but let’s not kid ourselves here. I don’t think anyone truly cared, or even knew about this film.
The films that have a 0% chance
Ana and Bruno: While I know Ana and Bruno is a big deal in Mexican animation as it’s the most expensive animated feature from that part of the world, but outside of the animation scene, do people even know about this flick? It has slightly higher than average ratings, but who is distributing this film? I’m sorry, but this is one of the most obscure animated films in the submissions. It also has some less than stellar animation. It unfortunately has no chance.
Have a Nice Day: The only noteworthy element of this film is the controversy it caused last year for getting removed by China’s government for no real reason. It also has some interesting story beats, but with the very limited animation, and its fairly clunky story, there is no way this film has a chance. Plus, no one really knows about it.
Fireworks: I still stand that this is GKids’ worst outing in a while. The story is terrible, it wastes so any opportunities, because it needed to stick to the original story of the TV show episode it’s based on, and it’s not even the best looking animated feature from Japan this year. It’s a shame that the reviews were pretty much spot-on with this one. If you like it, that’s fine, but it has no chance when Mirai is the superior flick.
Sherlock Gnomes: I’m sorry to all of the people who worked hard on this film, but this has no chance! It was widely panned by critics and audiences, bombed at the box office, and is one of the few films I think I can safely say had no reason to exist. No one was asking for a sequel to a film no one cared about.
Dr. Seuss’s The Grinch: The Grinch might be making money, but that’s all it’s going to do. Illumination got lucky with Despicable Me 2 getting an Oscar nomination, but they haven’t been getting much award love since. No one will be talking about this Grinch until next Christmas, when people are reminded that Illumination made another one. Just because you made a lot of cash, doesn’t mean you will rake in the awards.
Tall Tales: I’m going to sound like a broken record, but it was very hard to find information about this movie, and it has no real presence in the US animation scene. It doesn’t even have any presence in the overall animation scene. When no one has any opinion or knowledge of your film, how are you going to expect an Oscar nomination?
The Laws of the Universe Part 1: The very first film in this series was submitted back a couple of years ago, but since no one I know talks about either that or this film, it has no chance. I know Elevenarts is finally putting their films on DVD, but when I haven’t been able to see either film because of limited screenings, then that’s a problem. It’s also going to have to beat out the other amazing anime titles of this year, and it simply won’t.
There you go! These are my predictions of which films have a chance, and what films have no chance in making it onto the list. Hopefully the Academy will get over their hatred for non-US animated features, but we will have to see how long that lasts.